Two Cents Rugby - Could the All Blacks Play a 7-1 Split in 2025?
The discussion centers on whether the All Blacks could adopt a 7-1 split strategy, similar to what France and the Springboks have successfully used. This strategy involves having seven forwards and one back on the bench, which can be risky if injuries occur but offers significant forward momentum. The All Blacks have versatile players like Ardie Savea and Jordie Barrett, who can cover multiple positions, making this strategy feasible. However, the current coach, Razer, has traditionally favored a 5-3 split, providing balanced coverage for each position. The potential for a 6-2 split is also considered, especially against teams like the Springboks, who might employ a 7-1 split in upcoming matches. The discussion highlights the need for utility players who can adapt to various roles, which the All Blacks possess, but it remains uncertain if they will shift from their traditional approach.
Key Points:
- The 7-1 split strategy involves seven forwards and one back on the bench, offering forward momentum but risking positional coverage if injuries occur.
- France and the Springboks have successfully used this strategy, prompting other teams to consider it.
- The All Blacks have versatile players like Ardie Savea and Jordie Barrett, who can cover multiple positions, making the strategy feasible.
- Coach Razer has traditionally used a 5-3 split, providing balanced coverage, but a 6-2 split might be considered against teams like the Springboks.
- Utility players are crucial for this strategy, and the All Blacks have several, but a shift from their traditional approach is uncertain.
Details:
1. 🗣️ Exploring the 7-1 Split Strategy for All Blacks
- The likelihood of the All Blacks adopting a 7-1 split in 2025 is questioned, with doubts about whether Razer would opt for it despite having the players.
- The 7-1 split strategy was successfully used by France in winning the Six Nations.
- The Springboks have also been successful in recent years using the 7-1 split, being one of the first teams to adopt it.
- Given the success of these teams with the 7-1 split, it is anticipated that other teams will consider this strategy.
2. 🔄 Player Positions and Strategy Risks
- The Six Nations has seen an increase in 6-2 splits, which have outperformed the traditional 5-3 splits, indicating a shift towards more forward-dominant strategies.
- For example, the Springboks have successfully used players like Cheslin Kolbe who can adapt to multiple positions, providing strategic flexibility in case of injuries.
- The All Blacks are considering a 7-1 split, aiming to leverage forward momentum, although it demands players to potentially occupy suboptimal positions, posing a risk if injuries occur.
- Traditionally, the All Blacks prefer to unleash their backs towards the end of matches, suggesting that a 7-1 strategy might conflict with their established gameplay style focused on backline strength.
3. 🔍 Utility Players and Global Comparisons
- The strategy of using utility players in rugby allows teams like South Africa to cover multiple positions with fewer players, reducing the risk associated with a 7:1 forward to backline bench split.
- Utility players such as Quaka Smith and Damen Vilser provide flexibility, with Smith offering speed and agility, and Vilser able to play almost every backline position except number nine.
- France utilizes players like Dupon and Ramos in multiple roles, demonstrating the effectiveness of having versatile players who can adapt to different game situations.
- England employs a 6:2 split but still leverages utility players like Ben Ear to maintain adaptability in the backline.
- The New Zealand rugby strategy has been critiqued for not focusing enough on specialists, yet it benefits from having a range of utility players who can fill various roles, showing the value of adaptability over specialization.
4. 🤔 New Zealand's Versatile Player Analysis
- Aris Savia is renowned for his versatility, playing multiple forward positions (6, 7, 8) and occasionally filling in the backline, highlighting his ultra-mobile and adaptable style. This versatility has been crucial in providing strategic depth and adaptability during games.
- Jordi Barrett's flexibility is evident as he has played test matches for the All Blacks in various positions, including 12, 15, right wing, and even number 10. His ability to adapt to different roles, except for number 9, adds significant value to the team’s strategic options.
- Steve Hansen suggested that Damian McKenzie could potentially cover the halfback position (number 9), reflecting the team's emphasis on strategic depth and adaptability through player versatility.
- Razor's preference for a traditional 5-3 split aims to provide comprehensive cover for each position. This strategy has had mixed success, at times benefiting from strong bench performances while at other times being outperformed by opponents’ bench strategies. This approach underscores the importance of strategic adaptability and the potential impact of versatile players.
5. 🏉 Razer's Strategic Preferences
- Razer's 2024 season team includes front row players Toighty Williams, Taylor, and Low Max, with Scotty Barrett and T as locks, and Sati Pap and Aris Savia in the back row.
- Sam Kane was the preferred number seven, but due to his absence, versatile players like Dalton and ID are considered, capable of playing positions six, seven, and eight.
- Utility players are key, with Scotty Barett and Tu able to play in the back row, and Sati switching between six or eight.
- In the backline, Royard is preferred at number nine over Raimar, while Dmac is favored over Bod due to more playtime.
- Midfield choices include Jordi and Rico, despite Rico's uncertain position due to the Blues' poor performance.
- Back three players are Clark, Reese, and Jordan, with no TJ Perenara post-retirement.
- Utility in the backline is emphasized with Dmac playing fullback or number ten, Caleb Clark and Reese covering both wings, and Jordy Barrett being highly versatile.
- Rico's flexibility includes playing outside center, left wing, and inside center for the Blues.
- Will Jordan's adaptability allows him to play on the wing or at fullback.
- Few specialists exist, with mainly Reese and Clark as wing specialists at the test level.
6. 🔧 Feasibility of Implementing a 7-1 Split
- The 7-1 split strategy involves having seven forwards and one back on the bench, presenting risks based on past performances of players like Razer.
- Specialist players such as Blackadder and Lio provide utility value, while Finale and Tossi can add a stronger physical presence, enhancing impact if the 7-1 split is employed.
- The strategy necessitates a versatile player like Dmac, who can cover multiple positions (9, 10, 15), due to the absence of a specific backup for position nine.
- Players like Timo Tataba, who has shown strong club rugby performance and positional versatility, are considered despite lacking international caps.
- Quin Tupaya, excelling in the Midfield and capable of covering wing positions, adds necessary flexibility, crucial for the 7-1 strategy.
7. 📊 Strategy Evaluation and Audience Engagement
- Consider positional flexibility by utilizing players experienced in multiple roles, such as NWA who has played center at NPC level, to enhance team adaptability.
- Evaluate the potential to drop specialist wingers like Clark or Ree in favor of players offering broader positional capabilities, improving overall team dynamics.
- Assess using a 62 split in team formation against strong opponents, like the Box, to optimize defensive and offensive balance.
- Explore alternative strategies such as a 71 split for the ABS, involving a halfback on the bench and leveraging larger players like Tossy at tight head prop to strengthen the forward pack.
- Consider starting versatile players like Jordi Barrett on the wing for more coverage and flexibility, allowing strategic shifts during the game.