Zeihan on Geopolitics - Introducing the Next Generation Air Dominance Platform, F-47 || Peter Zeihan
The U.S. has launched the NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) fighter program, aiming to develop a new air superiority fighter, the F47, to succeed the F-22. This initiative comes after decades of focusing on ground wars, which delayed advancements in air combat technology. The NGAD is expected to address the limitations of current fighters like the F-35, which has faced criticism for its high costs and limited range. However, the NGAD's development faces challenges, including high projected costs and uncertainties about its range and capabilities. Additionally, the U.S.'s shifting alliances and the emergence of new technologies, such as drones, raise questions about the future of manned fighter programs. The NGAD's success will depend on aligning technological advancements with strategic military needs and deployment capabilities.
Key Points:
- NGAD aims to replace the F-22 with a new air superiority fighter, addressing current limitations.
- The F-35 has been criticized for high costs and limited range, influencing the NGAD's development.
- Projected costs for NGAD are high, with estimates reaching $300 million per airframe.
- Technological advancements, like drones, challenge the relevance of traditional manned fighters.
- U.S. alliances and military strategies are evolving, impacting future deployment and technology needs.
Details:
1. 🚀 Launch of NGAD Fighter Program
- The NGAD fighter program was announced by President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hagsth.
- The program aims to develop the next generation air dominance fighter, known as the F47, which reflects Trump's position as the 47th president.
- The NGAD program's objective is to enhance national defense capabilities by introducing advanced technologies to ensure air superiority.
- The program is expected to significantly impact military strategy by reducing the time required for threat response and increasing operational efficiency.
2. 🛬 Cold War Era and Defense Strategy Shift
- Following the Cold War's end and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. Defense Department identified a strategic opportunity due to Russia's weakened state.
- The anticipation was that Russia would struggle to develop new air defense products, such as bombers and fighters, providing the U.S. a chance to advance its own defense capabilities.
- Despite attempts, Russia's production capacity was limited, managing no more than one new air product at a time, underscoring their reduced military industrial output.
- The U.S. capitalized on this period by accelerating advancements in its defense technologies, leveraging the strategic gap left by Russia.
- This era marked a significant shift in global defense strategies, with the U.S. focusing on maintaining technological superiority in military capabilities.
3. ✈️ F-22 and F-35: A Tale of Two Fighters
- The defense strategy led to the development of advanced fighters like the F-22 and F-35, focusing on building the minimum possible and researching the next generation.
- The F-22 boasts the ability to reach supersonic speeds without afterburners, with a radar cross-section similar to a small bird due to its internal weapons bay, making it highly stealthy.
- The F-35, while an improvement over previous models, is criticized for its limited range and high costs, with each fighter priced over $100 million, posing technological challenges.
4. 🔍 Challenges with the F-35 Program
- The F-35's range is limited, impacting its operational effectiveness, especially when external weapons are added.
- Despite being a multi-role platform intended for both air-to-air combat and ground assault, the F-35 does not excel in any single role, reflecting a compromise in its design.
- Production of the more specialized F-22 was limited to less than 200 units, influenced by the broader need for a versatile platform like the F-35.
- The strategic decision to prioritize F-35 production over the F-22 was driven by the requirement for a joint strike fighter that could address diverse mission profiles, despite its limitations.
- Cost reduction to $100 million per airframe was achieved through international collaboration, involving multiple allies in the production process.
- The War on Terror underscored a greater need for ground strike capabilities over air superiority, impacting the demand and production focus away from the F-22.
- The F-35 entered mass production to fulfill a broad range of military needs, while the F-22 remained in limited production due to its specialized role.
5. 🌐 Geopolitical Impacts on Military Alliances
- The shift in focus to the war on terror over the past 20 years diverted resources from next-generation military technology development.
- The ENGAD air superiority fighter program is behind schedule due to prolonged commitments to ground wars.
- The cost of the F-35 has continuously increased, with the ENGAD program facing a potential cost of over $300 million per airframe according to a recent Pentagon audit.
- The ability to distribute military costs across alliances, such as NATO, is diminishing due to strained U.S. alliances.
- Countries committed to purchasing F-35 aircraft are reconsidering due to uncertainty about U.S. military commitments and security guarantees.
- Dependency on U.S. technology and services is causing allied nations to reevaluate their military procurement strategies.
6. 🛡️ Next-Gen Fighter Complications
- The F-35 is likely to get more expensive, with no clear sign of adoption for the ENGAT.
- The range of the NGAD remains unknown, affecting its potential advantages over existing models like the F-16 and F-22.
- The NGAD is in very limited production, practically handmade, with full manufacturing not expected for at least three more years.
- The ENGAD, as an air superiority fighter, requires a complementary aircraft for ground attacks, potentially limiting the U.S. military capabilities if relying solely on the joint strike fighter with its 600-mile range.
- The strategic shift away from alliances threatens the availability of forward bases crucial for effective deployment.
7. 📈 Evolving Military Technology and Strategy
- The development of a new ground strike jet will require an entirely new program with its own cost structure.
- Despite advancements in stealth and missile accuracy, the fundamental role of fighter jets has not changed significantly in the last 80 years.
- Recent breakthroughs in material science, digitization, and energy transfer could lead to significant changes in military technology.
- Drone technology is advancing, with Ukrainians able to build drones for less than $20,000 each, and rocket drones for $200,000 that can reach targets as far as the F-35.
- The strategic approach to military investments is uncertain due to rapidly evolving technology and geopolitical shifts.
- The future of military deployments may depend on whether new technologies are developed to match deployment geography, or deployments are adapted to new technologies.