TED - What You Miss When You Focus on the Average | Sharon Zicherman | TED
The speaker shares a personal story of being diagnosed with Stage 3C colorectal cancer at age 39, highlighting the initial shock of survival statistics that seemed grim. This led to a deeper exploration of how averages can mislead, particularly in critical life decisions. The speaker emphasizes that averages often include a wide range of variables that may not apply to individual cases, such as age and lifestyle differences in cancer statistics. Practical examples include the design of the Burj Khalifa to withstand earthquakes beyond average magnitudes and the importance of AEDs in public spaces despite low average usage. The speaker argues for the importance of considering outliers and specific contexts rather than relying solely on averages, as illustrated by the survival rates of colorectal cancer patients and the potential insights from studying spontaneous remissions in terminally ill patients. The speaker concludes by setting a personal goal of 100% survivorship, challenging the relevance of average statistics in their case.
Key Points:
- Averages can be misleading; consider individual circumstances.
- Design and risk management should account for more than average scenarios.
- Outliers can provide valuable insights beyond statistical norms.
- Ensure the average used is relevant to the specific context.
- Personal goals and metrics can differ from statistical averages.
Details:
1. 📅 Diagnosis and Initial Reactions
- In March 2022, I was diagnosed with colorectal cancer, which had already spread to multiple lymph nodes, categorized as Stage 3C.
- I sought immediate education on the disease and its treatment, discovering that the five-year survival rate was approximately 50%.
- At the time of diagnosis, I was 39 years old.
2. 🤔 Rethinking Averages and Survival Rates
- A survival rate statistic revealed a 50% chance of living to age 44, challenging personal health perceptions and highlighting the importance of individual risk assessment.
- The realization that survival averages encompass diverse populations with varying health conditions led to questioning their applicability to individual circumstances.
- Recognizing individual differences is crucial, as relying solely on generalized statistics can mislead personal decision-making, especially in life-shaping choices.
- For example, a person might reconsider their lifestyle choices, such as diet and exercise, by understanding that generalized statistics may not reflect their unique health profile.
3. 📊 Questioning the Validity of Averages
- Averages can be misleading, especially when managing risk, as demonstrated by the Burj Khalifa, which is designed to withstand a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, despite the average quake in the region being much lower.
- Question the relevance of using averages as a metric for decision-making, especially in risk management scenarios.
- Consider whether focusing on averages might cause you to overlook critical factors.
- Use de-averaging techniques to better understand customer needs and make informed decisions on pricing and service.
- De-averaging involves breaking down data into more specific segments to uncover insights that averages might obscure, such as understanding diverse customer preferences or identifying niche market opportunities.
4. 🚨 The Importance of Right Metrics in Critical Situations
- The average age was not the right metric for selecting a family movie, as it led to a poor outcome for a six-year-old.
- Using the average metric alone can be misleading, as demonstrated by the low average usage of AEDs despite their critical importance.
- On average, there are 200 cardiac arrests in public spaces in the US daily, with only 10% involving AED usage by bystanders.
- The value of AEDs is not reflected in their average usage but in the impact of their use; every minute after cardiac arrest reduces survival chances by 7-10%, but receiving an AED shock within the first minute increases survival chances to 90%.
- Focusing on the potential impact metric of having an AED highlights the importance of investing in their accessibility.
5. 🔍 Learning from Outliers and Setting Personal Goals
- Over 80% of colorectal cancers occur in individuals over 49, emphasizing the importance of considering age-specific data when analyzing survival statistics.
- The speaker highlights the need to evaluate the relevance of average statistics to one's personal situation, advocating for context-specific averages.
- An example of travel planning in LA is used to illustrate the importance of planning with specific context rather than relying on average commute times, such as considering rush-hour traffic.
- Real estate firms that survived the subprime mortgage crisis focused on worst-case scenarios instead of relying solely on average default rates, demonstrating the value of learning from outliers.
- Dr. Jeffrey Rediger's research on spontaneous remissions suggests that studying statistical outliers can provide valuable insights that challenge average statistics.
- The speaker emphasizes setting personal goals beyond standard statistics, as exemplified by choosing a 100% survivorship goal rather than accepting a 50/50 survival rate.