Everything Everywhere (Everything Everywhere) - The World's Next Countries | Everything Everywhere Daily
The discussion highlights the dynamic nature of country formation, noting that while the number of countries has increased over the last century, the pace has slowed in recent years. The video explores territories with strong independence movements, such as Greenland, which has significant autonomy from Denmark and a high public support for independence. Bougainville, part of Papua New Guinea, has a history of conflict and a strong mandate for independence from a 2019 referendum. New Caledonia, a French territory, faces demographic challenges but has held multiple referendums on independence. Somaliland operates as a de facto independent state but lacks international recognition due to geopolitical concerns. The Cook Islands, a territory of New Zealand, has near-complete autonomy but remains tied to New Zealand due to citizenship issues. These regions are highlighted as having the best chances of becoming independent by 2035, though the process is uncertain and influenced by various political and social factors.
Key Points:
- Greenland has 70% public support for independence and significant autonomy from Denmark.
- Bougainville voted 97.7% for independence in a 2019 referendum, awaiting Papua New Guinea's approval.
- New Caledonia has held three referendums, with mixed results, and faces demographic challenges.
- Somaliland functions independently but lacks international recognition due to geopolitical concerns.
- The Cook Islands have full autonomy but remain a New Zealand territory due to citizenship ties.
Details:
1. 🌍 The Evolution of Country Numbers
- There are approximately 193 to 200 countries in the world today, depending on the definition used.
- The number of countries has been steadily increasing over the last 100 years, largely due to decolonization, the breakup of larger states, and increased recognition of new states.
- Significant historical events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia contributed to the emergence of new countries.
- Decolonization after World War II led to many African and Asian nations gaining independence, significantly increasing the number of recognized sovereign states.
- The varying definitions of what constitutes a country affect the total count, reflecting differences in international recognition and political status.
2. 📈 Historical Trends in Nation Formation
- The creation of new countries has experienced both rapid periods and long intervals without new formations, reflecting varying historical and geopolitical contexts.
- Since 2011, there have been no new country formations, indicating a period of geopolitical stability or stagnation in nation creation.
- Historically, periods of rapid nation formations have often followed major geopolitical shifts, such as the end of colonialism or the dissolution of large states like the Soviet Union.
- Understanding these trends requires analyzing the underlying political, economic, and social factors that contribute to nation formation or stagnation.
3. 🔮 Predicting Future Country Additions
- There is a possibility of new countries being officially recognized before the decade concludes, influenced by historical precedents and evolving geopolitical landscapes.
- The discussion includes factors such as independence movements, regional stability, and international diplomatic recognition as potential drivers for the emergence of new countries.
- Examples from recent history, such as the recognition of South Sudan in 2011, highlight the dynamic nature of international borders and the factors that contribute to the recognition of new nations.
4. 🌐 The Complexity of Counting Nations
- The number of recognized countries ranges between 193 (UN member states) and the low 200s (other international organizations).
- In the early 19th century, the number of countries was estimated in the low 200s, including many kingdoms and duchies.
- By the First World War, the number had dropped to the mid-50s due to European colonization.
- Post-World War II and decolonization saw a rapid increase in the number of countries.
- Since 2000, only three new countries have been created: East Timor (2002), Montenegro (2006), and South Sudan (2011).
- The creation of new countries has slowed significantly in the 21st century.
5. 🇬🇱 Greenland's Journey Towards Independence
- Greenland has been a territory of Denmark since 1814, gaining home rule in 1979 and expanded autonomy in 2009.
- Greenland's population is 56,000, making it larger than about 10 other countries by population size.
- Current polling shows 70% support for Independence in Greenland, with both of the largest parties in its Parliament supporting it.
- Greenland has significant territory and resources, and its strategic location adds to its advantages.
- Economically dependent on Denmark, Greenland could potentially replace this with deals with countries like Canada and the United States.
- Greenland is almost entirely autonomous and the transition to full independence seems feasible.
- Challenges include establishing a stable economy post-independence, focusing on resource management and international trade relations.
- Strategic alliances with countries like the US and Canada could provide economic support and security.
- Political steps towards independence include maintaining autonomy and gaining further international recognition.
6. 🇵🇬 Bougainville: From Conflict to Autonomy
- Bougainville is currently part of Papua New Guinea and is the largest island in the Solomon Islands archipelago.
- The independence movement began with colonial-era grievances and economic exploitation, particularly related to the Panguna copper mine.
- Bougainville declared independence in 1975 but was later reintegrated into Papua New Guinea.
- The Bougainville Civil War from 1988 to 1998 resulted in thousands of deaths.
- A 2001 peace agreement granted Bougainville autonomous status and promised a future independence referendum.
- In 2019, a non-binding referendum showed 97.7% support for independence, but full sovereignty requires negotiations with Papua New Guinea.
- The agreement outlines potential independence between 2025 and 2027, pending ratification by Papua New Guinea's Parliament.
- If independent, Bougainville would have a population of about 300,000 and a per capita GDP of approximately $1,100.
7. 🇫🇷 New Caledonia: The Struggle for Sovereignty
- New Caledonia has been part of France since 1853, facing intensified calls for independence since the 1970s and 1980s, notably resulting in the 1988 OUVA hostage crisis.
- The 1988 OUVA hostage crisis resulted in 19 Kenic militants and two soldiers killed, leading to the Matignon Accords in 1988 and the Nouméa Accords in 1998, granting New Caledonia greater autonomy and outlining a process for potential independence.
- Three referendums held in 2018, 2020, and 2021 showed increasing pro-independence support, but ultimately independence was rejected, especially after the 2021 vote boycotted by KIC leaders due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The native Kanak people account for only about 41% of New Caledonia's population, with European French making up around 24%, complicating the path to independence due to population demographics.
- If independent, New Caledonia would have a population of approximately 271,000 and a per capita GDP of $34,000, with only about 15% of its economy dependent on French support, primarily relying on nickel mining.
8. 🇸🇴 Somaliland: A Case of De Facto Independence
- Somaliland operates as an independent country, issuing its own passports and currency, and holding democratic elections with peaceful power transitions.
- With a population of approximately 6.2 million, similar to El Salvador, and slightly larger than Uruguay in land area, Somaliland remains unrecognized internationally.
- Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991, following the collapse of the authoritarian regime, leading to a relatively stable governance compared to other regions in Somalia.
- Historical colonial boundaries and fears of encouraging separatism contribute to the global reluctance to recognize new African nations, affecting Somaliland's international status.
- Recognition by Ethiopia could be pivotal, potentially leading to broader international acceptance of Somaliland's independence.
- Somaliland's declaration followed a history of conflict and a desire for self-determination, distinguishing its stability from Somalia's ongoing turmoil.
- International recognition would enhance Somaliland's ability to engage in global diplomacy and economic development, offering a model of stability in the region.
9. 🇨🇰 Cook Islands: Near Independence Status
- The Cook Islands are a Polynesian territory with about 15,000 residents, having near-independence without officially being independent.
- They have full control over their domestic affairs, maintain diplomatic relations with countries including the USA, and participate in international organizations such as UNESCO and WHO.
- The Cook Islands have their own Olympic team, currency, and stamps, illustrating significant autonomy.
- New Zealand has stated it will not oppose Cook Islands declaring independence if chosen; however, the primary barrier to independence is citizenship and passport issues.
- Approximately 85,000 to 100,000 Cook Islanders live in New Zealand, holding New Zealand citizenship.
- The desire for Cook Islands to issue their own passports conflicts with retaining New Zealand citizenship, as New Zealand requires independence for such changes.
- Strong ties with New Zealand and lack of pressure to fully separate contribute to the current status, with independence an available but unexercised option.
10. 🔮 Possibilities for New Countries by 2035
- There is a potential for full independence for smaller New Zealand territories like Toao and Niue, which could be explored in future dedicated episodes.
- By 2035, new countries might emerge and seek membership in the United Nations, highlighting the unpredictable nature of geopolitical shifts that could affect even major countries.
- The podcast aims to maintain accuracy, as shown by a correction of a previous error regarding the US Signal Intelligence program, emphasizing the need for precise information.
- A critical review pointed out the importance of human involvement in content creation, reinforcing the value of maintaining quality and accuracy in reporting.