VisualPolitik EN - How Putin Wants to Prevent a Coup in Russia @VisualPolitikEN
The Russian National Guard, established by Vladimir Putin in 2016, was designed to protect the regime and maintain internal order. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this paramilitary force was instrumental not in direct combat but in consolidating control over occupied territories. They managed political control, suppressed dissent, and ensured the security of critical infrastructure, allowing the Russian military to focus on frontline combat. The Guard's role extended to organizing fraudulent referendums and deporting Ukrainians, including children, to Russia. Domestically, the Guard has been pivotal in quelling anti-Putin protests and ensuring loyalty within Russia's power structures. Following the Wagner Group's mutiny, the Guard is being armed with heavy weaponry to act as a formidable force against any internal threats, reflecting Putin's reliance on them as a personal security force.
Key Points:
- The Russian National Guard was created to protect Putin's regime and maintain internal order.
- During the Ukraine invasion, they focused on controlling occupied territories, not direct combat.
- They played a role in organizing referendums and deporting Ukrainians to Russia.
- Domestically, they suppress dissent and ensure loyalty to Putin.
- Post-Wagner mutiny, they are being armed with heavy weaponry to counter internal threats.
Details:
1. 🌍 2022: Russia's Unforeseen Struggles
- The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to severe geopolitical challenges for Russia, resulting in significant international isolation.
- Economic sanctions imposed by Western countries severely impacted Russia's economy, leading to a contraction in GDP and increased inflation rates.
- Internally, political dissent increased as the Russian population faced economic hardships and uncertainty, contributing to a decline in public support for the government.
- Russia's international influence diminished as countries aligned against its actions, leading to a shift in global alliances.
- Strategically, Russia faced difficulties in maintaining its military operations due to logistical challenges and international opposition.
2. 🔄 2023: A Year of Adaptation and Resistance
- The conflict began with Russian forces anticipating a swift victory, but by late 2022, they faced unexpected retreats due to significant losses, shifting the dynamics.
- The Ukrainian Army's advances were seen as a significant underdog success, akin to a 'David vs. Goliath' scenario, achieving substantial victories against Russian forces.
- Western nations promised extensive support, notably with heavy equipment like Leopard tanks, which was initially seen as potentially decisive.
- By 2023, the Ukrainian counteroffensive did not meet its strategic objectives; Western equipment deliveries were delayed and did not match initial promises, impacting Ukraine's plans.
- Despite challenges, Putin retained some territorial gains, indicating the complexity of the conflict's progression and its geopolitical ramifications.
3. 🛡️ Putin's Strategic Move: The Russian National Guard
- In 2016, President Putin established the Russian National Guard, a strategic move that played a critical role in the Russian campaign in Ukraine.
- The Russian National Guard helped prevent a potential collapse of Russian efforts during the first year of the war in Ukraine by providing additional support and stability.
- This decision was instrumental in mitigating greater losses and casualties, complementing the efforts of the Russian military.
- The presence of the National Guard ensured better control and management of internal security issues, allowing the military to focus on external threats.
- The National Guard's formation highlighted Putin's foresight in strengthening domestic security to support international military operations.
4. 👮 Inside the National Guard: Structure and Purpose
- The Russian National Guard, a paramilitary group established by Putin, formally serves the dual purpose of defending national territory and protecting the regime from internal threats such as coups and revolutions, echoing events in Georgia and Ukraine.
- Its creation underscores a strategic move to ensure regime security, with the body directly answering to Vladimir Putin, thereby bypassing traditional ministries and enhancing direct control and loyalty.
- Led by Viktor Zolotov, a close ally of Putin, the National Guard is a testament to its critical role within the power structure, highlighting trust and loyalty at its core.
- With a substantial force of around 200,000 troops, the National Guard is equipped with a diverse array of weaponry including artillery, airplanes, helicopters, drones, and tanks, showcasing its comprehensive military capabilities.
- The National Guard functions as a parallel army, growing in size and capabilities, signifying its strategic importance to Putin's regime.
5. 🎯 Ukraine Operations: Initial Challenges
- The Russian National Guard was crucial in supporting Putin’s campaign in Ukraine, functioning alongside conventional armed forces similar to Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
- Their primary task was to quickly control key areas, which proved challenging in the initial months of the invasion.
- The National Guard encountered difficulties in establishing control over occupied territories, facing unexpected resistance and logistical issues.
6. 🚧 Securing Occupied Territories: The Guard's Role
6.1. Initial Failures and Withdrawal
6.2. Securing Conquered Territories
6.3. Facilitating Annexation and Political Control
6.4. Protecting Infrastructure and Nuclear Sites
6.5. Counterintelligence and Resistance Limitation
7. 🔗 Kremlin's Reliance on the National Guard
- The National Guard is utilized not for combat capability but for suppressing dissident and controlling annexed regions.
- The role of the National Guard is crucial to Russian efforts, allowing the army to remain focused on front-line duties.
- If the Army were tasked with National Guard duties, it would strain resources and energy, impacting front-line effectiveness.
- The US Army faced similar challenges in Iraq, highlighting the strategic benefit of the National Guard's role for Russia.
- Putin's use of the National Guard is strategically beneficial, likened to a 'petorian guard' serving the leader's needs.