The Compound - Has The Fed Grown Too Large?
The Federal Reserve (FED) has historically deflected blame for economic issues, citing external factors like oil embargoes or supply chain disruptions. However, a more significant change occurred in 2008 when the FED altered its monetary policy. This shift moved from a scarce reserve model, where banks maintained 10% reserves, to a system where banks now hold 35% reserves due to quantitative easing (QE). This change has led to an over-reserved banking system, with the FED's balance sheet expanding from $800 billion in 2007 to over $7 trillion today. This expansion makes the FED larger than the top 10 sovereign wealth funds combined, highlighting its massive influence on the financial system.
Key Points:
- The FED has historically avoided taking blame for economic issues, often citing external factors.
- In 2008, the FED shifted from a scarce reserve model to a system with higher bank reserves due to QE.
- Banks now hold 35% reserves, compared to the previous 10%, leading to an over-reserved system.
- The FED's balance sheet has grown from $800 billion in 2007 to over $7 trillion today.
- The FED is now larger than the top 10 sovereign wealth funds combined, indicating its significant influence.
Details:
1. 🎠The FED's Blame Game: Excuses Over the Years
- The Federal Reserve has a historical pattern of deflecting blame for economic issues, dating back to the 1970s.
- During the 1970s, the FED attributed economic troubles to external factors such as the oil embargo by Saudi Arabia and a drought affecting wheat production.
- Similar blame-shifting narratives have been observed in recent times, with the FED citing causes like Putin's actions and supply chain disruptions.
- This pattern indicates a consistent strategy of using external events as scapegoats for domestic economic challenges.
2. 🔄 Radical Monetary Shifts: From Scarcity to Surplus
- 60% of every $100 in circulation today was created in the last 16 years, highlighting a significant increase in money supply that impacts inflation and economic stability.
- The Federal Reserve shifted in 2008 from a scarce reserve model to a surplus reserve model, fundamentally changing banking operations and financial markets.
- Before 2008, banks operated on a 10% reserve model, trading hundreds of billions of dollars daily to meet reserve requirements, affecting liquidity and interest rates.
- Post-2008 Quantitative Easing (QE) led to banks now holding 35% reserves, significantly higher than the required 10%, creating an over-reserved banking system that reduces the need for interbank lending.
- This surplus reserve environment has implications for monetary policy effectiveness, potentially altering the Fed's control over interest rates and economic stability.
- The shift to surplus reserves was driven by the need to stabilize the financial system post-crisis, but it also presents new challenges in managing inflation and economic growth.
3. 📊 The FED's Balance Sheet Boom: A Global Giant
- The FED's balance sheet has expanded from $800 billion in 2007 to over $7 trillion today, indicating a massive growth.
- Initially, the FED's balance sheet was 1/10th the size of the US banking system; now it is 13 times larger.
- The FED's current balance sheet exceeds the combined size of the top 10 sovereign wealth funds globally.