CA Rachana Phadke Ranade - Auto Sector Turnaround? | Breaking down Auto numbers | CA Rachana Ranade
The speaker analyzes the Nifty index, noting a recent trend reversal with a higher high and potential for further gains if resistance levels are broken. The market's positive movement is attributed to strong GST collections and auto sales data. December's GST collection reached 1.76 lakh crores, marking the 10th consecutive month above 1.5 lakh crores, though growth needs to accelerate to meet annual targets. Auto sales showed improvement, with vehicle registrations surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Stocks like Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra reported significant sales increases. The speaker emphasizes the importance of follow-up actions in price movements, especially when driven by news. They also promote their courses on price action analysis and announce an upcoming live event in Mumbai.
Key Points:
- Nifty shows potential for gains if resistance at 24,800 is broken.
- December GST collections were strong but need faster growth to meet targets.
- Auto sales improved, with registrations exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
- Follow-up actions are crucial in news-driven price movements.
- Courses on price action analysis are available with discounts.
Details:
1. 📊 Market Overview & Nifty's Upward Trend
- Nifty was previously experiencing a downward trend characterized by lower highs and lower lows.
- The market recently broke through a previous high, signaling a potential trend reversal.
- A higher high has been established, suggesting a shift in market sentiment.
- For a confirmed trend reversal, a higher low is also necessary.
- If the market can sustain and break past current levels, there is a strong possibility of a significant upward trend.
2. 📰 Positive Market News: GST & Auto Boost
2.1. Market Reaction
2.2. GST Collection Impact
3. 🚗 Auto Sector Analysis & Stock Movements
- In December, auto inventory levels were high at 650,000 units, equating to 65-68 days of supply; however, the festival season helped reduce this burden.
- Vehicle registrations have rebounded from a dip in 2020, surpassing pre-COVID levels with current registrations exceeding 23 million, compared to 18 million in 2020.
- Auto sales data shows significant year-over-year increases for Maruti Suzuki (24%), Mahindra and Mahindra (16%), and Eicher Motors (25%), indicating strong market performance.
- In contrast, some companies like Tata Motors only saw a 1% increase, while Bajaj Auto and Hyundai Motors experienced slight declines of 1% and 1.3%, respectively.
- The auto sector index is performing well with notable movements in companies like Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, and Eicher Motors, reflecting investor confidence.
- Aisha Motors has broken above its previous trading zone, but caution is advised as this movement is driven by recent news, requiring further observation.