Cryptoast - Le média Crypto - Ce bullrun est différent (en certains points)
The speaker emphasizes that the cryptocurrency cycles of 2014, 2017, and 2021 are not repeating in the same way today. The ratios and multipliers seen in past cycles are not expected to recur. This cycle is unique due to significant institutional involvement, such as major economic powers and companies like BlackRock entering the market. The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs and increased regulation, including frameworks like Mika, mark a departure from previous cycles. These changes suggest a more institutionalized and regulated market, which could impact future price movements, although the exact effects remain uncertain.
Key Points:
- Cryptocurrency cycles are not repeating past patterns.
- Institutional players like BlackRock are now involved.
- Bitcoin spot ETFs are a new market feature.
- Increased regulation with frameworks like Mika.
- Market dynamics are changing, affecting future prices.
Details:
1. 📉 Shifting Cryptocurrency Multipliers
- Cryptocurrency multiplier ratios from past cycles, such as 2014, are unlikely to repeat in current or future cycles, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
- The pattern observed in 2014 did not replicate in 2017 or 2021, demonstrating significant variability in market multipliers over time.
- For instance, Bitcoin's multiplier in 2014 was significantly higher than in 2021, suggesting market maturation and increased regulation have impacted growth rates.
- Investors should not expect consistent multiplier ratios across different market cycles, highlighting the importance of adapting investment strategies based on current market analyses.
- Understanding the factors contributing to these changes, such as regulatory impacts, market maturity, and technological advancements, is crucial for strategic investment planning.
2. 🔄 Distinctive Cycle Characteristics
- Cryptocurrencies far from their all-time high (ATH) may not recover as Bitcoin recently did, highlighting the variability in cycle recovery.
- Bitcoin achieved its ATH recently, unlike some other cryptocurrencies such as Ripple and Litecoin, which have not revisited their ATHs.
- Investors should not rely on all cryptocurrencies to reach their ATHs again, as each cycle is unique and influenced by different market factors.
3. 🏦 Rise of Institutional Players
- Major global economic powers are entering the cryptocurrency market, marking a significant shift.
- Institutionalization is evident with the involvement of major players like BlackRock, indicating a growing legitimization of the market.
- The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs has led to notable inflows and bulk purchases, highlighting a new trend compared to previous bull markets.
- Observable strong volumes in Bitcoin spot transactions reflect increased institutional activity.
- Institutional involvement could lead to increased market stability and attract further investments, enhancing overall market confidence.
4. 📊 Evolving Market Regulations and Impacts
- Recent changes in market regulations have significantly increased compared to previous periods, affecting the market landscape.
- Institutional buying patterns and quantities have shifted, indicating a response to these new regulations.
- The introduction of regulations like MiCA has led to a transformation in how platforms operate, imposing new obligations and compliance requirements.
- While the impact on market prices remains uncertain, these regulations are expected to create long-term strategic shifts in market operations.
- Examples of changes include stricter compliance protocols and altered trading strategies by institutions.