MSNBC - ‘Never going to get transparency from Moscow’: Russia may be to blame for plane crash
The conversation involves aviation analyst Jeff Gazetty and retired U.S. Lieutenant General Hodges discussing a recent plane crash. Gazetty explains that data from the plane indicates controllability issues, with the aircraft pitching up and down, suggesting problems with flight controls. General Hodges questions why the airport was open amid drone strikes and suggests the crash might be due to an air defense missile strike, similar to the MH-17 incident. The discussion also touches on the challenges of flying in conflict zones, with airlines needing to avoid dangerous areas to ensure safety. The investigation's complexity is noted, with data recorders in Kazakhstan's hands, which may lack the necessary equipment for analysis. The broader context of Russia's actions in Ukraine is also discussed, emphasizing the need for transparency and disciplined air defense crews.
Key Points:
- Controllability issues were evident from the plane's data, indicating problems with flight controls.
- General Hodges suggests the crash might be due to an air defense missile strike, similar to the MH-17 incident.
- Airlines must avoid conflict zones to ensure passenger safety, adding to operational costs.
- Kazakhstan may lack the equipment to analyze flight data recorders, complicating the investigation.
- Russia's actions in Ukraine highlight the need for transparency and disciplined air defense crews.
Details:
1. 🕵️♂️ Investigation Underway: Black Box Analysis
- Authorities will receive the black box data for examination.
- The analysis is projected to span a minimum of two weeks, potentially yielding insights into the incident's causes and contributing factors.
- This analysis is crucial for informing future safety measures and could influence regulatory changes.
- Stakeholders, including aviation experts and safety boards, will closely monitor the findings to assess their impact on industry practices.
2. ✈️ Flight Control and Controllability Issues
- The aircraft experienced significant pitching up and down, indicating a clear controllability problem, as recorded by ASDB data.
- Video evidence confirmed the aircraft's nose was repeatedly going down and then attempting to pitch up during an emergency landing, emphasizing the magnitude of the controllability issues.
- Sources including open data and crew testimonies consistently highlighted the problems with flight controls, suggesting a systemic issue in the aircraft's controllability.
- The presence of pitching issues was persistent, affecting the aircraft's ability to maintain stable altitude and airspeed, which are critical for safe operations.
3. 🛡️ Defense Concerns and Potential Missile Strike
- Initially, the Kremlin attributed the crash to a bird strike, but a Russian aviation official later acknowledged Ukrainian combat drones in the area, complicating the narrative.
- The operational status of Grazny Airport during known Ukrainian drone threats raises questions about its defense preparedness.
- Evidence such as holes in the fuselage implies a potential air defense missile strike, challenging the bird strike claim and suggesting a need for a strategic review of airspace security measures.
4. 🔍 Investigation Comparisons: MH-17 and Current Case
- Air defense systems need disciplined, well-trained crews to prevent incidents like the one discussed, highlighting the importance of training and discipline in air defense operations.
- Even large airports, such as LAX, can be shut down by commercial drones, indicating the sensitivity of air traffic control to unauthorized aircraft.
- The MH-17 incident involved a long investigation by Dutch investigators, who concluded it was caused by Russian-backed forces, yet the Kremlin never acknowledged this, affecting the credibility and follow-up actions of such investigations.
- Recommendations from the MH-17 investigation about closing airspace over conflict zones were not followed, illustrating a gap in implementing safety protocols despite clear evidence and suggestions.
- The Dutch investigation examined damage patterns on the fuselage and black box data to attribute the MH-17 downing to a missile, showing the thoroughness required in aviation crash investigations.
- The expectation for the current investigation is to follow a similar thorough approach as MH-17, with an emphasis on transparency and international cooperation to uncover the truth.
- The need for an International Civil Aviation Authority investigation is emphasized to ensure accountability and prevent sweeping the incident under the carpet.
5. 🖥️ Data Recorder Analysis and Challenges
- The Kazak government currently holds the flight data recorders but lacks the necessary equipment to analyze the data independently.
- Kazakhstan relies on Moscow and a robust Russian accident investigation entity to download and analyze flight data.
- There is uncertainty about whether Kazakhstan will send the data recorders to another location for analysis.
- Kazakhstan's dependency on external entities highlights a critical gap in its aviation safety infrastructure, which could delay responses to accidents.
- Developing in-country capabilities for data analysis could enhance Kazakhstan's autonomy and efficiency in handling aviation incidents.
6. 🔫 Russian Involvement: Intentional or Accidental?
- The investigation could be complicated due to potential Russian involvement, raising questions about the intentionality versus accidental nature of the incident.
- Speculation exists whether the shooting down was accidental or intentional, significantly impacting the perception of the regime involved.
- Acknowledgement of the pilots' efforts who managed to save 25 to 35 people after being hit in the incident, highlighting their skill and bravery.
- Moscow is expected to lack transparency, as it has historically denied involvement and distracted from admitting mistakes, complicating the investigation.
- The incident is believed to be accidental unless it involved targeting a specific passenger, which would suggest intentionality.
- Understanding the broader geopolitical implications is crucial, as similar incidents in history have led to significant international tensions.
7. 🌍 Airline Safety in Global Conflict Zones
7.1. Training and Discipline in Defense
7.2. Airport Closures and Safety Concerns
7.3. Airline Safety and Conflict Zones
8. ⚔️ Ongoing Conflict and Russian Tactics
- Russia targeted Ukraine's power grid on Christmas, leaving 500,000 people without power, illustrating their strategy of targeting civilian infrastructure.
- These attacks are violations of international law, showing a disregard for civilian life, which Russia has historically demonstrated.
- There is skepticism about Russia facing consequences for these actions unless enforced by international community.
- The response to the attacks was criticized as inadequate, with emphasis that such actions are war crimes regardless of timing.
- Negotiations with Russia are problematic given their history of not honoring agreements, highlighting the need for a strong peacekeeping force to enforce compliance.