The Rest Is Politics - 355. How to start a campaign, Giselle Pelicot, and the biggest surprise of 2024
The discussion highlights the unexpected political shifts in 2024, where incumbency became a disadvantage in elections globally. Notably, parties in power lost ground, with examples like the ANC in South Africa forming a coalition, Modi's reduced win in India, and the UK Tory government falling. The conversation also touches on the alarming decline of climate change as a political priority, with COP events losing significance and major countries doing little to address emissions. Additionally, geopolitical surprises in Syria, Israel, and the US are explored, illustrating how predictions failed. The podcast also reflects on personal highlights, books, and cultural events of the year, emphasizing the importance of resilience and adaptability in political and personal contexts.
Key Points:
- Incumbency became a disadvantage in 2024 elections, with many ruling parties losing ground.
- Climate change has declined as a political priority, with COP events losing significance.
- Unexpected geopolitical shifts occurred in Syria, Israel, and the US, defying predictions.
- Personal highlights include political changes, cultural events, and notable books of the year.
- Campaigning requires persistence, clear goals, and understanding of media dynamics.
Details:
1. 🎧 Welcome and Subscriber Benefits
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5. 🥊 Boxing Day Edition: Political Surprises of 2024
- In 2024, voter turnout reached historic levels, indicating heightened public engagement in elections.
- Incumbency became a liability rather than an asset for political parties globally, with incumbents losing most elections.
- For the first time in recorded history, incumbent parties lost the majority of elections worldwide.
- Even in cases where parties retained power, such as the ANC in South Africa, they had to rely on coalitions, reflecting diminished support.
- Unexpected setbacks were seen in India with Modi's anticipated win not materializing, showcasing the incumbency disadvantage.
- The UK experienced a significant political shift with the Tory government falling, and the US saw the Democrats lose to Trump, highlighting a broader trend of challenges faced by ruling parties.
6. 📉 Climate Change's Decline on the Political Agenda
- Climate change has significantly dropped on the political agenda, posing a serious and dangerous issue.
- The hard right has been effective in weaponizing climate issues, contributing to its decline in political focus.
- Public recall of significant moments or decisions from COP (Conference of the Parties) is low, indicating diminished public engagement and awareness.
- Reasons for the decline include political polarization and prioritization of other immediate economic and social issues.
- The hard right's strategy includes framing climate initiatives as economically damaging, which resonates with certain voter bases.
- Lack of media coverage and public discourse contributes to the reduced recall and engagement with climate-related decisions.
- A strategic approach to re-engage the public could involve linking climate action to economic benefits and job creation.
7. 🌍 Global Political Shifts: Syria, Israel, and the US
- The G20, representing the 20 wealthiest countries responsible for 85% of global carbon emissions, showed minimal action on climate change during recent meetings.
- The focus of COP discussions has shifted towards development assistance for emerging countries, detracting from addressing the critical issue of failing to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
- Global warming is surpassing the 1.5-degree target set by the Paris Agreement, with current trajectories indicating a rise towards 2 to 3 degrees.
- Despite international efforts, carbon emissions continue to rise, highlighting a significant gap in achieving climate goals.
- Political shifts involving Syria, Israel, and the US are creating complexities in international relations that may further impact global climate policies.
- The political dynamics between these countries are crucial in shaping future international cooperation on climate change and may influence the strategic directions of global environmental initiatives.
8. 🇺🇸 Trump's Unexpected Political Strategy
- Donald Trump's re-election as president was the biggest political event of the year, indicating significant voter support despite controversies, which suggests a strong base willing to overlook previous scandals.
- Trump's advocacy for aggressive energy policies, such as 'drill, baby, drill,' contrasts with green agendas, marking a strategic focus on energy independence and economic growth through traditional energy sectors.
- Elon Musk's dismissal of recycling as a 'waste of time' highlights a shift in environmental discourse, where influential figures question the efficacy of traditional eco-friendly practices, potentially steering public opinion towards more innovative solutions.
- Ed Miliband receives criticism for pushing the green agenda without considering broader economic consequences, yet he remains a key leader in climate advocacy, showing the tension between environmental goals and economic pragmatism.
- The geopolitical landscape defied expert predictions, with unexpected developments in Syria, Israel, and the US, marking 2024 as a year of surprises, indicating a volatile international order that requires adaptive strategies.
9. 🇮🇱 Middle East Dynamics and Global Implications
9.1. Middle East Dynamics
9.2. Global Implications
10. 🎭 Personal Reflections and Conversations with Stephen Fry
- Trump's political strategy emphasized minimal traditional ground operations, leveraging social media and platforms like Joe Rogan's podcast, which effectively reduced the need for physical campaign offices. This strategy underscores the growing influence of digital media in political campaigns.
- In Romania, a political candidate harnessed TikTok and 60,000 fake Russian accounts to gain prominence. This example highlights the significant role of digital influence in shaping political landscapes, particularly in elections.
- Despite felony convictions, Trump maintained substantial support from African-American and Hispanic voters, illustrating a notable shift in political dynamics and voter behavior. This indicates an evolving political environment where digital strategies can transcend traditional voter barriers.
11. 📚 Books of the Year: A Dive into Politics and History
11.1. Stephen Fry's Prediction Experience
11.2. Rory Stewart's Reflections
12. 🎬 Film and Series Highlights: Captivating Stories
- The Labour Party's significant win marks a major political shift, highlighting changing political landscapes.
- A personal milestone was achieved with a podcast episode featuring Angela Merkel, demonstrating high-profile engagement.
- Filling the O2 arena represents a significant achievement in audience reach and influence.
- Rory's daughter's performance at the Hammersmith Apollo with 2,500 attendees showcases personal growth and overcoming stage shyness.
- The podcast's US election coverage received positive feedback, emphasizing effective collaboration and audience engagement.
- Children's personal growth and courage were highlighted, particularly in overcoming shyness, demonstrating developmental achievements.
13. ✈️ Travel and Cultural Insights: From Australia to Notre Dame
13.1. Literary Insights
13.2. Cultural and Social Reflections
14. 🏛 Cultural Events and Reflections on Restoration
14.1. Introduction and Film Discussion
14.2. Film: The Outrun
14.3. Series Recommendation: The Diplomat
14.4. Book and Series: Say Nothing
14.5. Lake Annecy: Environmental Management
14.6. Australia: Economic and Cultural Insights
14.7. Notre Dame Restoration
15. 📢 Campaigners of the Year and Advocacy Strategies
15.1. British Museum's Record Donation
15.2. Successful Theatre Production
15.3. Unique Dining Experience
15.4. Campaigner of the Year: Giselle Perico and the Role of Social Media
15.5. Campaign Strategies and Principles
15.6. Campaigner of the Year: Alan Bates
16. 🎄 Closing Thoughts and Holiday Wishes
- Rory and Alistair exchange holiday wishes and discuss Boxing Day plans, emphasizing the importance of enjoying the holiday season.
- Rory mentions checking the Burnley game updates on Sky Sports, indicating engagement with sports during the holidays.