The speaker addresses the challenges in predicting the impact of tariffs on consumer inflation, especially in light of recent inflationary trends. They highlight that many factors influence how tariffs affect inflation, such as the duration, size, and countries involved in the tariffs, as well as potential retaliatory measures. The speaker stresses that it is premature to make conclusions about the impact of tariffs without knowing the specifics of the policies. They also note that the recent period of high inflation and trade diversions from China to other countries add complexity to the situation. The speaker advocates for a cautious approach, suggesting that a thorough assessment should only be made once the policies are clear and implemented. Until then, they recommend considering these questions without rushing to definitive answers.