Vsauce - The Experiment We Didn't Show
The video discusses a psychological experiment involving jelly beans, inspired by a 1906 contest where people guessed the weight of an ox. The experiment aimed to test the 'wisdom of the crowds' theory, which suggests that the median of a group's guesses can be surprisingly accurate. However, the experiment failed because participants influenced each other's guesses, leading to inaccurate results. This highlights the importance of independent thinking in crowd-based estimations, as prior research shows that collaboration can reduce accuracy by pushing towards consensus rather than diverse individual insights.
Key Points:
- The 'wisdom of the crowds' theory suggests that the median of independent guesses can be highly accurate.
- In the experiment, participants guessed the number of jelly beans in a jar, but results were inaccurate due to group influence.
- Independent guesses are crucial for accurate crowd wisdom, as group discussions can skew results.
- The experiment mirrored a historical event where the median guess of an ox's weight was nearly perfect.
- Collaboration in guessing can lead to consensus, which may decrease accuracy.