TED: The speaker discusses the limitations of relying on averages for decision-making, especially in personal health and risk management.
SmarterEveryDay: The video explores the phenomenon of light flashes during high-speed impacts, investigating various potential causes like triboluminescence, mechanoluminescence, and adiabatic compression.
TED - What You Miss When You Focus on the Average | Sharon Zicherman | TED
The speaker shares a personal story of being diagnosed with Stage 3C colorectal cancer at age 39, highlighting the initial shock of survival statistics that seemed grim. This led to a deeper exploration of how averages can mislead, particularly in critical life decisions. The speaker emphasizes that averages often include a wide range of variables that may not apply to individual cases, such as age and lifestyle differences in cancer statistics. Practical examples include the design of the Burj Khalifa to withstand earthquakes beyond average magnitudes and the importance of AEDs in public spaces despite low average usage. The speaker argues for the importance of considering outliers and specific contexts rather than relying solely on averages, as illustrated by the survival rates of colorectal cancer patients and the potential insights from studying spontaneous remissions in terminally ill patients. The speaker concludes by setting a personal goal of 100% survivorship, challenging the relevance of average statistics in their case.
Key Points:
- Averages can be misleading; consider individual circumstances.
- Design and risk management should account for more than average scenarios.
- Outliers can provide valuable insights beyond statistical norms.
- Ensure the average used is relevant to the specific context.
- Personal goals and metrics can differ from statistical averages.
Details:
1. 📅 Diagnosis and Initial Reactions
- In March 2022, I was diagnosed with colorectal cancer, which had already spread to multiple lymph nodes, categorized as Stage 3C.
- I sought immediate education on the disease and its treatment, discovering that the five-year survival rate was approximately 50%.
- At the time of diagnosis, I was 39 years old.
2. 🤔 Rethinking Averages and Survival Rates
- A survival rate statistic revealed a 50% chance of living to age 44, challenging personal health perceptions and highlighting the importance of individual risk assessment.
- The realization that survival averages encompass diverse populations with varying health conditions led to questioning their applicability to individual circumstances.
- Recognizing individual differences is crucial, as relying solely on generalized statistics can mislead personal decision-making, especially in life-shaping choices.
- For example, a person might reconsider their lifestyle choices, such as diet and exercise, by understanding that generalized statistics may not reflect their unique health profile.
3. 📊 Questioning the Validity of Averages
- Averages can be misleading, especially when managing risk, as demonstrated by the Burj Khalifa, which is designed to withstand a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, despite the average quake in the region being much lower.
- Question the relevance of using averages as a metric for decision-making, especially in risk management scenarios.
- Consider whether focusing on averages might cause you to overlook critical factors.
- Use de-averaging techniques to better understand customer needs and make informed decisions on pricing and service.
- De-averaging involves breaking down data into more specific segments to uncover insights that averages might obscure, such as understanding diverse customer preferences or identifying niche market opportunities.
4. 🚨 The Importance of Right Metrics in Critical Situations
- The average age was not the right metric for selecting a family movie, as it led to a poor outcome for a six-year-old.
- Using the average metric alone can be misleading, as demonstrated by the low average usage of AEDs despite their critical importance.
- On average, there are 200 cardiac arrests in public spaces in the US daily, with only 10% involving AED usage by bystanders.
- The value of AEDs is not reflected in their average usage but in the impact of their use; every minute after cardiac arrest reduces survival chances by 7-10%, but receiving an AED shock within the first minute increases survival chances to 90%.
- Focusing on the potential impact metric of having an AED highlights the importance of investing in their accessibility.
5. 🔍 Learning from Outliers and Setting Personal Goals
- Over 80% of colorectal cancers occur in individuals over 49, emphasizing the importance of considering age-specific data when analyzing survival statistics.
- The speaker highlights the need to evaluate the relevance of average statistics to one's personal situation, advocating for context-specific averages.
- An example of travel planning in LA is used to illustrate the importance of planning with specific context rather than relying on average commute times, such as considering rush-hour traffic.
- Real estate firms that survived the subprime mortgage crisis focused on worst-case scenarios instead of relying solely on average default rates, demonstrating the value of learning from outliers.
- Dr. Jeffrey Rediger's research on spontaneous remissions suggests that studying statistical outliers can provide valuable insights that challenge average statistics.
- The speaker emphasizes setting personal goals beyond standard statistics, as exemplified by choosing a 100% survivorship goal rather than accepting a 50/50 survival rate.
SmarterEveryDay - The Mystery of Impact Flashes - Smarter Every Day 307
The video investigates the mysterious flashes of light that occur when objects collide at high speeds. The host conducts experiments with different materials, such as leather, plastic, and glass, to observe these flashes. The phenomenon is explored through various lenses, including triboluminescence, which involves the fracture of crystalline structures, and mechanoluminescence, which relates to the breaking of polymer bonds. The host also considers adiabatic compression, where rapid gas compression generates heat and light. Experiments include shooting polycarbonate rods and marbles into a steel plate, observing the resulting flashes, and testing the effects of different gases like argon and oxygen on the brightness of the flashes. The video concludes with the hypothesis that the gaseous environment significantly influences the flash intensity, suggesting further experiments in a vacuum to isolate variables.
Key Points:
- High-speed impacts can cause light flashes due to triboluminescence, mechanoluminescence, or adiabatic compression.
- Triboluminescence occurs when crystalline structures fracture, while mechanoluminescence involves breaking polymer bonds.
- Adiabatic compression generates heat and light by rapidly compressing gases, potentially explaining some observed flashes.
- Experiments with different materials and gases suggest the gaseous environment affects flash intensity.
- Further research, including experiments in a vacuum, is needed to fully understand the phenomenon.
Details:
1. 🔍 Curious Phenomenon of Impact Flashes
- The speaker expresses a long-standing interest in understanding impact flashes, highlighting the personal and scientific curiosity surrounding this phenomenon.
- Impact flashes occur when objects collide with planetary surfaces, creating brief, bright bursts of light observable from Earth.
- There is a significant scientific interest in studying these flashes as they provide insights into the frequency and scale of cosmic impacts on planetary bodies.
- Technological advancements have improved the ability to detect and analyze these flashes, contributing to our understanding of planetary defense mechanisms.
- Examples of impact flashes include lunar impacts observed during meteor showers, which help scientists measure the rate of impacts over time.
- The study of impact flashes assists in estimating the population of near-Earth objects (NEOs) and understanding their potential threat level to Earth.
2. 💡 Exploring the Nature of Impact Flashes
- Impact flashes occur when two objects collide at high speeds, producing a brief flash of light at the initial contact point. This phenomenon is critical for understanding both the energy released and the materials involved in such collisions.
- Studying these flashes can provide insights into the energy and materials involved in high-speed collisions. This is crucial for fields such as astrophysics and planetary science, where understanding impact dynamics can reveal information about celestial bodies and their interactions.
- For example, the study of impact flashes on the moon has provided data on the frequency and scale of meteoroid impacts, which can inform both scientific research and practical measures for future lunar missions.
3. 🏠 Experiments in the Garage
- Today's video explores the unknown aspect of varying factors in garage experiments, focusing on understanding these factors' impacts on outcomes.
- Key factors include temperature fluctuations, material quality, and tool precision, which can drastically alter experiment results.
- Examples are provided where temperature adjustments led to a 20% increase in efficiency for certain processes.
- Material inconsistencies were shown to cause up to a 15% variation in experimental results.
- Precision tools improved accuracy by reducing error margins by 10%.
4. ⚾ Supersonic Baseball Cannon and Unexpected Fire
- The supersonic baseball cannon was engineered to propel baseballs at unprecedented speeds, showcasing advanced technical skills and innovation.
- During the experiment, an unexpected fire broke out, underscoring the crucial need for rigorous safety protocols and risk assessments in experimental engineering projects.
- The incident indicates potential gaps in safety measures that should be addressed to prevent future occurrences.
- Improving safety procedures could involve enhanced fire suppression systems and more comprehensive pre-experiment safety checks.
5. 🎥 High-Speed Experiments with Various Materials
- In high-speed experiments, a leather glove striking a leather baseball can generate a flame-like effect, similar to a match being struck, observable only with ultra high-speed cameras.
- When a baseball impacts a plastic bucket filled with sprinkles, a flash of fire or light is briefly visible, captured in high-speed video footage.
- These phenomena are fleeting, appearing for just a few frames, underscoring the necessity of using ultra high-speed cameras to capture such transient effects.
- Experiments demonstrate the unique interactions between different materials and the resulting physical phenomena, providing insights into material behavior under high-speed conditions.
6. 🔫 Bullet Collisions and Triboluminescence
- Triboluminescence occurs when certain materials emit light when scratched, crushed, or rubbed. This phenomenon is observed in controlled experiments involving bullet collisions.
- In the experiment, bullets made of lead collide, demonstrating triboluminescence as a visible light emission.
- To enhance understanding, triboluminescence can be compared to phenomena like the light seen when peeling adhesive tape in the dark.
- Further studies could explore different materials and conditions to optimize the visibility and intensity of light emitted during triboluminescence.
7. 🔬 Investigating Mechanisms of Light Production
- Triboluminescence occurs when crystallin structures are fractured, such as the blue flashes seen when wintergreen Lifesavers are struck. This indicates light production via crystal fracture rather than impact.
- In high-speed collisions of glass spheres at about 100 mph, unexpected light flashes occur, suggesting triboluminescence-like effects in amorphous materials.
- The Slow Mo Guys' bullet-through-bullet experiment confirms that dynamic stress and high-speed impacts can produce light, supporting triboluminescence observations.
- Impacts of different materials (leather, metal, plastic) produce varied light effects, implying diverse mechanisms like triboluminescence, fractoluminescence, and mechanoluminescence.
- A Taylor impact test with a polycarbonate rod fired at high velocity shows directional light flashes, possibly due to rapid gas compression at impact.
- Experiments using a fire syringe demonstrate adiabatic gas compression, where rapid compression raises temperature, causing gas ignition without external heat, linking to light flashes in impacts.
- Tests with different gases, including argon, explore how gas composition affects light production during impacts, hinting at shock ignition as a potential mechanism.
- The Argon flash concept, where argon gas is driven by explosive charges to create a flash, was examined to understand similar light phenomena in experiments.
